Friday, April 30, 2010

SOUTH AFRICA WCUP

正如每次世乒赛一到,人们都预测中国球员会拿到冠军一样; 每次世界杯我第一个想到的还是巴西队。 上届世界杯,我预测的第一热门球队是巴西队。这次,不得不承认巴西队还是第一热门球队。巴西队球员的实力在那里,教练邓加是个讲究实际的人: 不求场面好看,只求胜利。这种执教理念为球队的防守增加了厚度。坚强的防守,加上攻守平衡,是夺取冠军必须的。这次世界杯第一次在非洲大陆举办,南美和欧洲球队都是远途征战。从水土上来说,不分伯仲。我初步整理了一下本人对一些队伍的看法。今天是5月15号,今天写完之后就不再改了,到时候我们再回来看看,看看今天讲的有没有道理。

巴西: 法国队是他们在世界杯的克星。自从86年世界杯之后,巴西没赢过法国。以前阿根廷可以克巴西,现在也是巴西胜多负少。所以,如果不碰法国和阿根廷,巴西很有希望得冠军。
阿根廷: 预选赛表现很差,差一点无法出线。梅西在球队里发挥不了威力,全队像无头苍蝇一样场上乱跑,没有战术。作为教练的马拉多纳没有什么经验,仅靠他的名气,阿根廷就能拿冠军?我们应该相信阿根廷会比预选赛时表现的好。结论:很难预测。 很大程度看梅西是否能与球队融为一体.
美国: 我预测进入第二轮。 以后,也很难预测。
西班牙:他们是目前欧洲实力最稳定的队伍。欧洲杯冠军。这次他们能像以前的法国队一样,成为双料冠军吗?他们最要提防的是防守反击的球队。
法国: 靠亨利的手球进入了世界杯。他们还能像上届一样进决赛吗?很难,除非ZIDANE重返赛场.不过按照实力,他们应进前8,或前4.
意大利:上届冠军。但队伍老化了,欧洲杯上看的很明显。止于前8。
英国:冠军的有力争夺者。
德国:指望不大。止于前8。
荷兰:看好他们进前4.
葡萄牙:能否进入第二轮,都是一个问号。除了同组的巴西,另一个小组出线的很可能是非洲的象牙海岸队。
塞尔维亚(前南斯拉夫):是个谜。预选赛表现很好。
非洲球队: 在本土比赛,应该有利。不知道那一只非洲球队会成为黑马?象牙海岸队,也许。
亚洲球队: 本来实力有限,这次又是在非洲大陆,几乎没戏。

30 comments:

Zhu, Qing said...

Hi Henry,

This is Qing. Nice to see your comments on the World Cup. Mostly agree with your predictions. Here's mine.

First off, I will not try to predict who's gonna win the WCup. It takes a lot of luck to win it. So I will just try to predict top tiers of teams.

First tier, all have chance to win the Cup. And I believe these 4 teams will be the final 4.

Argentina, Brazil, England, and Spain. Among them, Argentina, if they play like a team, have the best chance to win the Cup. But it is also the most questionable team in this group. If they cannot play like a team, they could be stopped at any moment by any opponent. Spain and Brazil are the most stable teams. And they are superior in skills and tactics. England have a generation of players that even surpass the players of the 1966 Enland team. I really like Gerrard. Lampard, Rooney, Cole, and some others are very good too.

Second tier, Holland and Germany. Here Holland should be better than Garmany. But I put them together 'cause I really respect German's fighting spirit.

Third tier, Italy, Portugal and one African team here. I don't know which African team. But I really think Ivory Coast has the best chance to be here. Italy, as you said, definitely is on their way down. Portugal, weak forwards and center.

Teams might give you a surprise. Mexico and Chile. They have skillful players. Just don't know whether they can play their best at the WCup.

My 2 cents. Thanks!

dsshenry said...

Qing,
Thank you for the comments. We are the very few people in the community who are still so enthusiastic about World Cup. I originally intended to write this blog for myself. So it surprised me when I saw your posting. Based on your encouragement, I will continue writing before and during the WCUP. So, let's communicate more using this thread.

First, to predict who will win WCup is like betting on dice. I also predict Brazil, Spain, England for final 4. Argentina has a HUGE question mark. Maradona is so crazy, unpredictable. If they cannot get the best out of Messi, they will stop at any stage.

This WCup, I have higher expectation on Holand than before. They have a generation of young and talented player, like, RVP, Sneider, Rubern, etc. They have a low profile but productive coach.

With Capelo, England is a very different team than before.

French team is also unpredictable.

I also feel Chile will do well.

I love this one-month long Wcup. There are so many uncertainties, so many puzzles to be folded out.

Only one team will win the glory.

Zhu, Qing said...

Hi Henry,

I just heard that Ballack is out of the WCup. What a bad luck for him and for the German Team.

After reading your original blog again, I realize that I omitted one strong team - France. But I would say they are just like Italy. They are going down very fast - at a speed that surprises me. Besides no Zidane, I think the biggest problem is their coach. Domenech does not only look like a clown. He also acts/coaches like a clown. He is far worse than Jacquet. It is a shame that they got into the WCup instead of Ireland.

Thanks!

dsshenry said...

That's very unfortunate for Ballack to be injured in the last game of PL season, which rules him out for the tournament. Do you watched Champion League Final game? I have been more impressed by their defenses instead of strikers. Brazil used to produce the best strikers for the world. Now they provides the best defense for the world. Please look at Inter Milan: Cesar, Maicon, Licio. These are the most important defensive players for Dunga's team. If Dunga wins WCup, his star player will be Lucio, instead of Kaka or Robinio. Ironically, Dunga abandoned Brazil's traditional stylish football and favor a "win at all cost" football. He is another Jose Mourinho

dsshenry said...

What will be the most exciting WCup final game on July 11th?
(1) Argentina vs England or
(2) Spain vs Holland or
(3) Brazil vs Argentina
.... or
An African team in Final ... it's a wild dream!

Zhu, Qing said...

Hi Henry,

I totally agree with you that the best defensive team now is, guess what, Brazil !!! Haha!

dsshenry said...

Let's tune into USA-England game at 2:30PM on Saturday. I hope USA could get away with a draw, which makes it easier for USA during remaining games. I think USA shold be very careful of Slovenia. USA performed not good vs East Europrean team. For example, vs Czech Republic. This Slovenia is very similar to Czech.
When I look at the schedule very closely, there are some interesting observations: If Netherland and Brizil win their group, they will meet at Q-Final, this should be a very exciting game. Group A, no idea who will win out, France, Mexico, Uruguay, SA. Also in Group D, will Germany win the group, or Serbia? If Italy and Spain win their group, they will meet in Q-Final.

dsshenry said...

理性的大师,专家们一般都会认为巴西,西班牙是世界杯冠军的热门队伍。我没有理由反驳。
In my head, they are the champions.
In my heart, I like surprises and I wish a crazy and passionate team wins the trophy. Let's wish for the best to come.

Zhu, Qing said...

Hi Henry,

Off your remarks of USA... I admit I am quite confused by this team. They are very good athletics. They can run. Run fast I mean. They have a lot of energy. They do not know what is fear. All these combined to form a strong team. But sometimes they just play like a bunch of amateurs. Are they lack skills? I don't think so. They might not be as skill full as, say Brazilians. But they have good enough skills. I really think they lack flexibility in tactics dealing with different playing styles. This might explain why they do not have good enough records against East European teams. They have very good results in recent years against Euro-Latin style countries though, such as Spain and Portugal.

As of Saturday's game, I am afraid that this England team is too much for US to tackle. First, they come from the best league in the World. Second, English players are faster. Third, the players' tactical sense plus the direction of Capello.

Advantages USA have, players maybe stronger(?); they are not worn down like their opponent after a session of high competitive plays; they have nothing to lose.

All in all, the best would be a draw for USA. However, I still think USA should go through the group stage and enter the eliminations.

Zhu, Qing said...

Just watched part ot Holland game. Till now, the only team shining is Germany. They played very well as a team with attaching attitude. Argentina, lack the finish and dubious defense. England, OK performance and a very bad goalie. Holland, not total football, players don't know why to run. They need to watch Germany game to learn how to organize attacks. Mexico, they are so lucky not to lose. The most boring game is France - Uruguay. Little surprise, South Korea played quite well.

dsshenry said...

QING, The weakness of team USA is their defense. They never have quality full backs. This problem is even exposed by the lack of a holding mid-fielder. Their strength is speed. Jozy Altidore is their secret weapon. Londan Donovan is fast too. Comparing to a master play maker, they need a good full back badly. The good full back can coordinate the defense line effectively. That's why they lost to Brazil in last year's Confederation Cup final.

Yesterday and Today, South Korean and Japan, out neighbors, really surprised me. Do you think SK can compete Argentina? Let's see. Messi is not lucky not scoring. Argentina has no problem with strikers. Their main concern is defense line and holding midfielder and captain Javier Mascherano. During first game, Mascherano looks nervous and not confortable and not relaxed. Argentina's defense 4 are not tested, they need strong helps from Mascherano to reduce the pressure. If Mascherano doesn't have a super performance, their defense will be exposed. I can see the defense is shaky vs Nigeria. If facing better team, I don't know what will happen.

England has the their problem with GK and defense as well. I only watched first half of Holland-Denmark game, which is dull. So far, I found most team has not reached their peak, I could see the slow rhythm, low score, high % of disrupt passing, etc. Maybe we have to wait for a few days ...

dsshenry said...

Greece played an terrible game. SK is happy with 3 points. How will SK respond to Argentina after 24 years in Mexico WCUP? Team USA should be careful of Slovenia. I think Slovenia will play it safely and wait for counterattack. If USA scores first, the game will be much easier. If Slovenia scores first, they will be tough to beat! USA should be fine if they draw the game and win over Algeria. Now I am waiting for Brazil and Holland to win their group, and then meet in Q-Final.

dsshenry said...

Tomorrow, two Latin teams will step onto the pitch: Chile and Spain. I like the Chile Coach. He is the former Argentina coach. Now Chile plays flow and attacking football. Spain will face Switzerland. Switzerland is a tough opponent trained by the Omar Hitzfield. In football world, we know him very well, the German coach has won CL trophy twice. His team has cohesion and efficiency.
In the Brazil group, I predicted Brazil and I.C. to advance. I still insist it. For Group A, I predicted France and Mexico to advance. Now, it seems they have to wait until last game.

dsshenry said...

Watched full Chile-Honduras games and 30 minutes of Spain. With the same coach, I can tell Chile playing style is similar to Argentina 8 years ago. Chile should score at least three more goals. Then, Spain wasted chances over chances and lost to defensive Swiss. This group is becoming wide open now. Now I have a feeling Spain will crash out like Argentina 8 years ago. Swiss and Chile will advance.

Zhu, Qing said...

Hi Henry,

Thank you for pointing out USA's problem. After your explanation, I suddenly understand USA team's advantages and weakness.

As for the games so far. Argentia is much much better in second game. The same is true for Uruguay. I think a lot of good teams will show their power in the second round.

Spain is really dangerous. Crashing out is a possibility now. But I still think Spain will get into round of 16. I am afraid Brazil - Spain will happen much sooner than later.

Let's keep watching the games.

dsshenry said...

In fact, I am not that confident for Spain after the 1st game. If Spain qualifies, who will be out? Now, Spain has to win Chile. If they draw, Spain will be out. Most likely, Swiss and Chile will shake hands. Argentina's success will mostly depends on its central defenders and its holding MF. As long as they do not make silly mistakes, Argentina should go very long.

The most disappointing team is France. Vs Mexico, I cannot image they played so poorly during 2nd half. No one can hold the ball, no one moves forward, no one steps out to receive ball. Unbelievable.

Uruguay was beyond my expectation. So does Mexico. Now, the games are becoming more exciting. Tomorrow, USA should win or draw Slovenia. England should win as well. Can Serbia reacts positively and play better vs Germany? If Serbia loses, they are out. It's very tricky game. Usually East Europe team has better records vs Germany. Probably it will be a draw.

dsshenry said...

Good news, USA still alive. What I had worried becomes true. Slovenia scored two early goads due to sloppy defending by No#5 Onyouwu. This tall guy has very poor sense of positioning, he moves and reacts slowly. Both goals are because of him. The counter-attack style fits USA better in the fact that they have faster players, but they have a shaky defense. 美国队遇强不弱,遇弱不强。 This Slovenia game should be a good lesson for them. In another note, the 3rd USA was disallowed unfairly. I think it's referee's mistake.

Zhu, Qing said...

To be a contender in WCup you have to show your strength even when you are down a goal or 2. Unfortunately Germany do not show their strength here. I also do not understand Low's substitutions. Apparently Podolski is not in form today. Why not let him out? Why staff so many attackers? And No. 8 Ozil was playing quite well. Why let him out? US team is much better when facing a daunting situation.

dsshenry said...

Today is the beginning of last group games. Which European super powers will become the victim to crash out?
Italy should advance.
Spain needs to defeat Chile. Not easy.
England has to defeat Slovenia. Not easy.
France: They need miracle and good luck.
If I have to bet: Italy and England to go through. Sorry for Spain and France.

Zhu, Qing said...

I think England, Italy, and Spain will all advance. My predict is that Chile will win its group and Spain the second. That means Spain and Brazil meet in next round. And I think Spain will beat Brazil.

My wildes prediction is that in group D Germany and Serbia will advance. I guess most people will choose Ghana. Well, I think Germnay will win and so will Serbia. That's why Ghana is so unluck not to advance. Let's see.

My pairing is:

Left hand of the braces:

Uruguya - South Korea (Uruguya)
England - Serbia (England)
Netherlands - Italy (Netherlands)
Brazil - Spain (Spain)

Right hand of the braces:
Germany - US (Germnay)
Argentina - Mexico (Argentina)
Paraguay - Japan (Paraguay)
Chile - Portugal (Portugal)

And round of 8
Uruguay - England (England)
Netherlands - Spain (Spain)
Germany - Argentina (Argentina)
Paraguay - Portugal (Portugal)

Let's see :-)

dsshenry said...

My prediction is wilder than yours. Maybe I am too crazy. This WCUP is Africa is full of surprises. Argentina or Holland can stop Brazil. I love Spain, but they are not in the best form now. I am impressed with Paraguay and Chile.

Left hand of the braces:

Uruguay - South Korea (Uruguay)
USA - Serbia (USA)
Netherlands - Italy (Netherlands)
Brazil - Spain or Swiss (Brazil)

Right hand of the braces:
Germany - England or Slovenia (Germnay)
Argentina - Mexico (Argentina)
Paraguay - Japan (Paraguay)
Chile - Portugal (Chile)

And round of 8
Uruguay - USA (USA)
Netherlands - Brazil (Netherlands)
Germany - Argentina (Argentina)
Paraguay - Chile (Chile)

dsshenry said...

Now USA has a realistic chance to advance to semi-final if they can pass Ghana and Uruguay. But they need to improve in defense when facing stronger opponents. Tomorrow Italy and Paraguay should advance. Hopefully Paraguay can keep the records set by South America teams so far to finish top of the group if they win vs New Zealand. The other group's runner up is Denmark or Japan. Can Japan win for the honor of Asian teams? It's a tough hurdle for Japan. Japan is in a better position. It will be a tie game. Japan moves on!

dsshenry said...

Now USA has a very realistic chance to advance to semi final, which we have never dreamed before. That means they have to pass Ghana and Uruguay. As the winner of their group, they avoid mighty Germany. However, they need to improve in defense when facing stronger opponents.
Tomorrow's games, Italy and Paraguay should advance. Who will top the group? Hopefully Paraguay will maintain the perfect record set by South American team so far in this tournament to top their group. New Zealand played bravely vs Italy. In the other group, who else will qualify? Denmark or Japan. Japan is in a better position now. Hopefully Japan can move on for the honor of Asian teams.

dsshenry said...

日本队今天赢得太漂亮了。日本上半场两个任意球进球可以写入教科书,是本次世界杯目前最漂亮的任意球。以前只见过巴西人踢出过这样的弧线球。日本队18号HONDA下半场的过人如同巴西人一样,第三个球是典型的巴西的进球。总之,今天日本人完胜!考虑到丹麦队员个个身高马大(1.90米以上),我还担心日本会在身材上,力量上吃亏。

事实再次证明足球不是由人种,身高,肌肉决定的,而主要由技术,配合,速度,体力决定,加上ORGANIZATION AND MOTIVATION. 看看墨西哥,日本,韩国队员。比起北欧,东欧的球员,他们在身高,肌肉上是处于劣势。但到了场上,一样赢球。 到今天,如果还有人搬出人种,身高,肌肉等原因为中国足球的落后找原因,那就是掩耳盗铃了。

为什么我今天把这个论点搬出来呢?记得1981年第一次看中国队打世界杯预选赛,就因为打不过新西兰,很多人(包括球迷和大多数足球界的专家)搬出人种,身高作为输球的原因。说什么我们吃大米的,怎么比得上吃牛肉的?看看人家的身高,力量和肌肉,我们个个都都面黄肌瘦的, 等等。 81年那次,中国队离世界杯只差半步,当时积分,净胜球与新西兰一样,按规则和新西兰打了一场EXTRA PLAYOFF。输了!如果当时中国队进了世界杯,那以后30年中国足球的历史会改写。 一旦站在了世界杯的赛场上,球队就有了完全不同的自信,通过和世界高水平球队的较量以后,认识也就不一样了,观念也会跟上世界的潮流。可惜啊,81年输给新西兰的一个球,耽误了中国足球30年。

dsshenry said...

Regardless of all of these, people still die hard to watch and cream. The dust is coming down and the best teams will collide now.

我们知道历届世界杯中,最精彩,最有技术含量的比赛诞生在1/4决赛。 实际上半决赛和决赛,并不精彩,反而很沉闷。作为内行,我们不难理解其中缘由:进入1/4决赛的大都是各组的种子队,他们是世界强队中的第一梯队,都是冲着冠军来的,在进入4强之前一般会放开打,没有什么保留。可是一旦进入4强,心态就变了,就会小心谨慎,以不出错为先。

7月4号的长周末,很多人要外出,而这次的1/4决赛又安排在7月2-3号。 你要是看不上实况,真太可惜了。荷兰-巴西,德国-阿根廷是两场重量级的比赛。

又要提到巴西队。1982年以来, 在世界杯淘汰赛里,世界上只有两个人在90分钟里赢过巴西: 马拉多纳(1990年)和齐达内(1998,2006)。 要战胜巴西,每个球员必须要完美地执行战术,后卫不能犯错。另外中场必须好,否则再好的防线也难以承受巴西前锋90分钟的轮番轰炸。

那么这次的荷兰队呢?我看好他们坚强的防守,加上中场的施耐德和鲁本。预测归预测,如果我错了,别笑话。

July 2,
Holland vs Brazil (Holland)
Uruguay vs Ghana (Uruguay)

July 3,
Argentina vs Germany (Argentina)
Portugal vs Paraguay (Portugal)

dsshenry said...

Tomorrow, Netherlands against Brazil. Since childhood time, I have been loyal and faithful Brazil fan. During every world cup, I wish and pray for Brazil to win all the games and the final. But, sine World CUP 2006, I am not a Brazil fan anymore. I still remembered that I was pretty happy and relieved when I heard France won 1:0 v Brazil in the train from Hanover to Berlin four years ago. I am searching the soul myself and still don't quite understand the reasons. As far as now, they do not play beautiful games anymore; they don't have strong passion in the game anymore.

Zhu, Qing said...

As She Hongquan predicted, Brazil is out. But Brazilians have nobody to complain to but themselves. After a dream start of 1-0 over just 10 minutes, they did not score a second goal when they had quite a few chances. They were very sharp on goal even though they did not dominate. There were few flaws very obvious even in this better half for Brazil. Fabiano was not there. Kaka was not up to the expectation. And most lethally their left defense.

And here came the second half. A totally different half. Holland dominated. All the attach was from right wing (Brazil's weak left wing defense). We all see the result. Not a bad one for Holland. I wish them getting their first crown they surely deserve way back in 1974.

And should we question Dunga for the way too defensive play of Brazil? I think so. If you keep pressure on your opponent, they will not have so many chances. As shown today in the second half, Holland just dominated Brazil. Brazilians were waken up until too late!

As Hongquan said, I am also a fan of Brazil. Until recently when they stopped playing football their style. And from now on, I think Brazilian Football Association should consider building a younger team for 2014 in their home turf. I really hope we can see a Brazil team as we expect.

After this world cup, I will root for Brazil again. And maybe life long. I will not change any more. I will appreciate other teams if they play good football. But emotionally I will switch to Brazil starting August 2010.

dsshenry said...

As I had predicted, Brazil is out. But it's a huge surprise to me that Argentina has been outplayed by Germany in such a margin. I initially predicted Netherlands and Argentina are in FINAL. I have to admit that I have been fooled by four of their easy wins against weak teams. Argentina is not ready to challenge World Cup glory. Maradona lead the team by instinct and emotion, instead of discipline and character. If I reflected my thoughts two months ago, I had an reasonable assessment and expectation for Argentina. They won't go too far in this tournament because they do not have a good defense and midfield is unsettled. The biggest problem is that as of now they still didn't find a role for Messi. We know how he plays in Barcelona, but he's lost in Argentina team. This is the first issue for the new Argentina coach.

Zhu, Qing said...

Well, now there is only one more important match - the final. Out of the teams I predicted that will get into the final 4 only Spain is in the last 4. And now Spain and Netherlands are in for the final!

Apparently, Spain has the upper hand in the final. But watch out for the Dutchmen, esp. in the second half. They only need about 10 minutes to shine. This has been proved and again on their way to the final against the mighty Brazil and very strong Uruguay. Now will they beat Spain with the same style? Will Spain's controlling style suffocate Netherlands? Who knows. If I have to bet, I will put my vote on Spain. This is the team to beat now in the world. They've already got European Cup. Now they are closing in on the World Cup. This team reminds me of the France team 1998 - 2000. They are really hard to beat (but possible, remember their first match in this WCup).

Anyway, we will have a new world champion. A new team will have a star on their jersey.

BTW, I have my home machine rebuilt. I now can input Chinese. But it seems I now enjoy commenting in English. :-)

dsshenry said...

The curtain has fallen. The show is over. The Netherlands has the broken heart one more time. Other than the fact Robben missed two great opportunities to lead the score, I feel Spain is more like a team. Holland may have better technical players, but they lack the resilience and patience. They are easily getting frustrated. When the luck is not on their side, they cannot persist. I don't know if that's the characteristics of Netherlands.